As one of the most anticipated financial events of the summer approaches, global financial markets are entering a crucial phase of anticipation and decision-making. The August 1st deadline for the United States to implement new tariffs against the European Union, alongside the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday evening, are two events that could completely disrupt the current balance of key assets.
This week’s market analysis focuses on the technical positioning of assets such as gold, Bitcoin, EUR/USD, and the Dow Jones. These assets are currently trading in critical ranges and are ready to react to fundamental triggers. We will review the short-term outlook for each asset based on the latest market data and price structures.
Fundamental Market Analysis | Federal Reserve and Trump in the Interest Rate Battle
This week, two major events could determine the short-term direction of the financial markets. First, the August 1st, 2025 (Friday, August 10th, 1404) deadline for the United States to impose new tariffs on European goods. Reports indicate that if an agreement is not reached, a 30% tariff will be imposed on all imports from Europe. However, a draft alternative agreement suggests the possibility of a 15% base tariff on most industrial goods. The final meeting between Donald Trump and Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, will be held on Sunday, July 27th (5th of Mordad 1404) in Scotland, and the outcome will likely be reflected in the markets by early Monday. A failure in negotiations could increase pressure on the euro and European stock markets, while gold and the Japanese yen may benefit from a new wave of safe-haven demand.
As seen in Trendo’s economic calendar, the second major event is the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, July 30th, 2025 (8th of Mordad), where interest rates will be announced, followed by a press conference with Jerome Powell. The market consensus is that the rates will remain steady at 4.25%-4.50%, but the focus will be on the tone of the statement and the possibility of signaling a rate cut in the September meeting. If Powell implicitly supports the possibility of a rate cut, pressure on the dollar index could increase, potentially boosting risky assets like gold, Bitcoin, and stock indices. Conversely, an aggressive or neutral Fed stance could reignite demand for the dollar.
Trendo’s Forex Economic Calendar
Technical Analysis of Key Assets This Week
In this section of the weekly financial market analysis, the focus is on the technical structure of assets that are positioned at key price levels. Gold, Bitcoin, EUR/USD, and the Dow Jones are now at the brink of either a breakout or reversal from important levels. We will examine the price action of each asset individually to analyze the possible short-term and medium-term scenarios based on the latest data.
Gold Technical Analysis | Trendline Break and Key Support
Gold is in the spotlight this week for traders, as the break of a strong trendline on the 4-hour chart has placed this asset in a critical technical phase. Currently, the price is fluctuating around $3,336, and after breaking the trendline, it has reacted to the support zone between $3,320 and $3,325. This level is recognized as a significant support on the 4-hour timeframe, and price behavior here will determine the future direction.
If this area holds and the trendline break is confirmed as a fake breakout, the price may return toward resistance at $3,400 to $3,410, which includes a Fair Value Gap. However, if the $3,320 support is broken and a bearish consolidation occurs, the first corrective target will be the $3,240 to $3,250 range. Traders should closely monitor gold’s reaction to this zone, as confirmation or rejection of this breakout will define the price path in the coming days.
Dow Jones Technical Analysis | Psychological Resistance at the Brink of Breaking
As seen in the Dow Jones price chart on Trendo, after weeks of upward movement, the index has reached the 45,000 mark, which serves as a critical psychological resistance. This level has been touched twice before, and with the third touch, the probability of a breakout has increased. Above this range, there is an opportunity for liquidity gathering through stop hunting, and if the breakout is successful, the market’s short-term target could extend to the 45,300 to 45,500 range.
However, the RSI indicator in the daily timeframe shows negative divergence between price and relative strength, a warning that could indicate weakness in the upward momentum. Therefore, if the 45,000 level is broken, traders should be cautious of a possible quick price reversal and temporary correction. On the downside, the first support lies around 43,500, and if this is lost, the next support zone will be between 42,300 and 42,500.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis | Awaiting Interest Rates and Outcome of Tariff Negotiations
In this week’s financial market analysis framework, the EUR/USD currency pair has rebounded after hitting the support level of 1.1685 identified last week and is currently trading at 1.1739. If the current trend continues without political or monetary shocks, the first resistance at 1.1800 will be available, and if broken, it may pave the way for the pair to reach 1.2000.
However, the euro’s outlook is heavily tied to two fundamental factors: First, the tariff deadline on August 1st, which, if negotiations fail, could put significant pressure on the euro. Second, the Federal Reserve meeting on August 8th, where Jerome Powell’s tone on the rate cut in September will dictate the direction of the dollar. If EUR/USD progresses to the 1.20 level, a negative divergence in the daily RSI could form, a warning that may lead to a temporary correction or short-term trend reversal. Traders should stay alert to this scenario and closely monitor price reactions to any political or monetary news.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis | Consolidation Below All-Time High
As seen in the Bitcoin price chart on the Trendo trading platform, this cryptocurrency remains in a compressed and critical zone. Over the past week, the price has remained relatively stable around $118,000, indicating that the market is awaiting the next catalyst. The $124,000 level is recognized as the recent all-time high and key resistance. If this level is broken, a new record could be set, and the price could surge toward Fibonacci extension zones ($130,000 to $135,000).
What has kept Bitcoin in this indecisive state is the expectation for the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on Wednesday night (8th of Mordad). The market is looking for signals regarding a possible rate cut in September. If this is strengthened, it could weaken the dollar index and direct investments toward riskier assets such as Bitcoin. In the opposite scenario, with a neutral statement, the price may fall to the $114,000 level. Currently, the price action in response to the Fed’s statement will determine the next phase for this cryptocurrency.
Final Summary | Opportunities Amidst Volatility, Real-Time Decision-Making
In this weekly market analysis, we observed that key assets are on the verge of reacting to the most important economic and political events of the week. On one hand, the Federal Reserve meeting and Jerome Powell’s speech could redefine the short-term direction of the dollar, gold, and cryptocurrency markets. On the other hand, the final outcome of trade negotiations between the US and the European Union will directly affect the outlook for the euro, European stock markets, and the overall risk appetite.
In such conditions, real-time access to the market, advanced technical analysis, and swift trade execution are of vital importance. Trendo’s trading platform provides the necessary tools for a reliable, fast, and precise experience in global markets. Additionally, for the latest expert analysis, trading alerts, and up-to-date macroeconomic news, join Trendo’s official Telegram channel now and stay one step ahead in the market.
