Last week, global financial markets remained under the shadow of Black Friday’s shock. Following the historic collapse of gold, silver, and the crypto market, traders were trying to identify the new market direction. The main question was: Has this correction ended, or is a new wave of selling on the way?
The US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Friday played a key role in determining the short-term market direction. Additionally, meetings by the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Reserve Bank of Australia had significant impacts on the forex market.
In this comprehensive analysis, we’ll examine last week’s events in detail, influential fundamental factors, and the outlook for the coming week, providing complete technical analysis of Bitcoin, gold, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and the Dow Jones index.
Fundamental Analysis of Last Week
The US Non-Farm Payrolls report released on Friday was one of the week’s most important events. This report revealed whether the US economy remains strong or shows signs of weakness.
Given last week’s sharp crash, a strong NFP could have put more pressure on gold and crypto while strengthening the dollar. Conversely, a weak NFP could have made calls for rate cuts in the second quarter louder and provided an opportunity to return to risk assets.
It’s important to note that the US labor market has sent mixed signals in recent months. While some indicators like the low unemployment rate show strength, other metrics such as declining working hours and slower wage growth show signs of a cooling labor market.
European Central Bank: Attempting to Control the Euro
The European Central Bank faced a major challenge in last week’s meeting. The Euro’s sharp rise against the dollar in recent months had raised concerns about European export competitiveness.
A stronger Euro means more expensive goods for foreign buyers and pressure on exports. Additionally, a strong Euro can reduce inflation, which while seemingly positive at first glance, excessive inflation reduction could lead to slower economic growth and the need for further interest rate cuts.
Therefore, it was expected that the ECB Chair would speak with a dovish tone and attempt to make the Euro appear weaker. Any reference to further rate cuts or concerns about economic growth could put downward pressure on the Euro.
Bank of England: The Path of Rate Cuts
The Bank of England faces similar challenges. The UK economy is growing but at a slower pace than expected. Inflation is also near the central bank’s 2% target, which opens the door for further rate cuts.
Bank of England decisions have a direct impact on the GBP/USD pair, one of the most traded currency pairs in the forex market. Any indication of faster rate cuts could put pressure on the pound.
Geopolitical Tensions: Iran Still in Focus
Trump’s threats to attack Iran remain one of the risk factors in markets. No attack has occurred yet, but the possibility remains and could cause oil price spikes and severe market volatility.
Interestingly, last week Bitcoin was unable to benefit from these tensions as a safe-haven asset. Instead, gold, despite its sharp crash, remained the first choice for investors seeking refuge from geopolitical risks.
Current State of the Crypto Market
After the sharp drop below $80,000, Bitcoin attempted to recover some losses. The main question is whether this return signals a bottom formation or merely a dead cat bounce before further decline.
Several factors can help answer this question:
1. Trading Volume: If the price recovery is accompanied by high trading volume, it indicates real buyers entering. But if volume is low, it’s likely just short-term traders taking profits.
2. Whale Behavior: Analysis of large Bitcoin addresses shows whether major investors are accumulating or distributing. If whales are buying, it’s a positive sign.
3. Open Interest: As mentioned, Open Interest decreased 10% last week. If this figure starts increasing, it shows capital is returning to the market.
Altcoins: Severe Bleeding
While Bitcoin tries to stabilize, many altcoins remain in critical condition. Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and other major cryptocurrencies have all experienced significant declines.
This situation shows that investors currently have no appetite for risk-taking and prefer to stay in safer assets. As long as this risk-averse sentiment continues, the likelihood of a strong altcoin recovery is low.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
After dropping to $78,678, Bitcoin has tried to return above $80,000. This level has now become a key resistance/support zone.
Daily Timeframe Analysis:
- Price remains below all major moving averages (MA50, MA100, MA200), indicating structural weakness
- RSI is oscillating in the 30-40 range, showing selling pressure has decreased but strong buyers haven’t entered yet
- MACD remains negative but signs of positive divergence are appearing
Key Levels:
- Immediate Resistance: $70,000-$72,000 – Breaking this area could open the door for a move toward $75,000
- Major Resistance: $75,000-$77,000 – This zone overlaps with the 50-day moving average
- Immediate Support: $68,000 – Recent low that must be held
- Important Support: $65,000 – Breaking this level could lead to a drop to $70,000
Bullish Scenario: If Bitcoin can consolidate above $72,000 and then break $75,000, there’s potential for a move toward $80,000.
Bearish Scenario: A break of $68,000 could trigger panic selling and a rapid drop to $65,000 and even $60,000.
Gold Technical Analysis
After the historic crash below $5,000, gold has made attempts to recover. This behavior is completely natural as the market needs rest and consolidation after any sharp move.
Current Analysis:
- Gold is oscillating in a range between $4,600 and $4,900
- Trading volume has decreased, indicating traders are waiting for the next signal
- The break of the $5,000 level has created a structural change requiring time to repair
Key Levels:
- Immediate Resistance: $4,800-$4,850
- Psychological Resistance: $5,000 – This level has now become strong resistance
- Major Resistance: $5,100-$5,200
- Immediate Support: $4,650
- Important Support: $4,500-$4,600 – Breaking this area could lead to further decline
Medium-term Outlook: Gold needs time to digest this shock. It will likely remain in a range for several weeks before the next direction becomes clear. Fundamental factors such as Federal Reserve decisions and geopolitical tensions will play a key role in determining the path.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
After testing the 1.2000 level in early last week, the Euro retreated and is now consolidating. The ECB meeting could determine the short-term direction of this pair.
Technical Analysis:
- Price is caught between the long-term uptrend line and 1.2000 resistance
- Formation of a symmetrical triangle pattern, which typically forms before the next big move
- RSI is in the neutral 50 range, indicating balance between buyers and sellers
Key Levels:
- Immediate Resistance: 1.1900-1.1920
- Psychological Resistance: 1.2000
- Major Resistance: 1.2050-1.2100
- Immediate Support: 1.1800
- Fibonacci Supports: 1.1748 and 1.1686
- Trendline Support: Moving upward, currently around 1.1750
Scenarios:
- An upside break of 1.2000 could lead to a move toward 1.2100 and even 1.2200
- A downside break of the uptrend line could start a fall to 1.1686 and lower
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
USD/JPY has been one of the most volatile pairs in recent weeks. After the violent carry trade unwind in early last week and subsequent recovery, this pair is in a key zone.
Current Status:
- Price is oscillating in the 154-155 range
- The threat of Japanese intervention still looms
- Interest rate differential still favors the dollar, providing long-term support
Key Levels:
- Immediate Resistance: 155.00 – Important psychological level
- Major Resistance: 156.50-157.00
- Long-term Resistance: 158.00-159.00
- Immediate Support: 154.00
- Important Support: 152.00-152.50
- Critical Support: 151.95 – Breaking this level could cause a severe reaction
Important Notes:
- Any statements from Japanese officials should be taken seriously
- Chasing breakouts in this pair is very dangerous
- Better to wait for consolidation and confirmation
Dow Jones Technical Analysis
The US stock market has also been affected by recent volatility. The Dow Jones index, representing 30 major American companies, has shown interesting behavior.
Current Analysis:
- The Dow Jones is near its all-time highs, showing stock market resilience
- Unlike gold and crypto, US stocks have managed to maintain their strength
- This strength stems from positive expectations regarding corporate profitability and the US economy
Key Levels:
- Immediate Resistance: 45,000 – Psychological level
- Immediate Support: 44,000
- Important Support: 43,500-43,700 – Previous consolidation zone
- Critical Support: 43,000 – Breaking this level could increase concerns
Important Note: The inverse relationship between a strong dollar and export stocks may become important in the future. If the dollar becomes too strong, it could pressure the profitability of multinational companies.
Key Events This Week
US Inflation Data
Several important inflation indicators will be released this week that could change interest rate expectations:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- Producer Price Index (PPI)
If these indicators come in higher than expected, the likelihood of rate cuts decreases, favoring the dollar and working against gold and crypto.
Retail Sales
Retail sales data shows whether American consumers are still wealthy or starting to reduce spending. Given that personal consumption represents 70% of the US economy, this data is very important.
Federal Reserve Officials’ Statements
Several Federal Reserve members have speeches this week. Any comments about interest rates, inflation, or economic conditions could shake markets.
Summary and Outlook
The coming week is critical. Markets are still digesting last week’s shock, and any new data or news could change direction.
Key Points for Traders:
- Patience is Key to Success: After such severe volatility, don’t rush. Wait for clear signals.
- Risk Management is Top Priority: Avoid high leverage and always use stop losses.
- Pay Attention to Data: NFP, CPI, PPI, and other economic data can be decisive.
- Volatility is Opportunity: For experienced traders, current volatility creates good opportunities, but caution is needed.
- Diversification is Important: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Diversify across different assets.
Short-term Outlook:
- Bitcoin: Neutral to bearish – needs to break $85,000 to confirm recovery
- Gold: Neutral – consolidating between $4,600 and $4,900
- EUR/USD: Neutral – waiting for triangle breakout
- USD/JPY: Cautiously bullish – but watch for intervention
- Dow Jones: Bullish – but watch for strong dollar impact
Ultimately, markets are redefining themselves after last week’s shock. Smart traders wait for the real direction to become clear and then enter with appropriate strategy and risk management. Success in these conditions depends on patience, precision, and discipline.
