Global gold Analysis (XAUUSD)

A review of gold movements

As mentioned in last week's gold symbol analysis, for technical and fundamental reasons, global gold could react to the 1865 resistance level, which is what happened, and it went down to the 1830 and 1825 support levels mentioned last week, and with the support of this level, global gold continued to climb again.

Note that gold has shown a downward reaction to the resistance level and did not enter the retracement. Additional technical approvals were needed for the retracement, which we will explain below.

Further, we will review gold's technical, fundamental, and sentiment aspects.

Gold Technical analysis 

By analyzing the daily chart of gold, we can see that gold is in its resistance band at weekly and daily times, but the noteworthy point is the 61.8% Fibonacci long descending wave, which is approximately in the round $1,900 number. Therefore, this resistance band can increase to 1900 due to the analysis time. Meaning the path of gold to climb in these timeframes first requires a daily candlestick close above 1885 and then stabilization above $1900.

At the daily time, if you pay attention to the chart, you will see a peak formed higher than the previous peaks, but in the RSI indicator, the peaks are lower than the previous peaks. This contradiction between the chart and the indicator is called divergence, and this shows the price's inability to rise further.

As you can see in the picture, the upward trend line has accompanied the gold beautifully. Therefore, if the price shows a downward reaction to the mentioned resistance level, the first confirmation of this trend line's failure is to turn this downward reaction into a retracement.

We can see an ascending channel by reviewing the gold chart in the four-hour timeframe. The ceiling of the channel and its interference with the daily time resistance level has made gold's ascent path difficult. Gold's main support is in the 1830 to 1725 level.

In the 4-hour timeframe, gold is still involved in the ascending channel drawn from last week. The channel's floor and ceiling have reacted beautifully and made traders gain profits. However, the noteworthy point in the four-hour timeframe is the concordance of the daily and weekly time resistance with the four-hour timeframe of gold, which multiplies the importance of this resistance. At this time, the indicators and the chart for gold left a little room for another rise, but note that if this rise happens, it will probably not be low and stable due to resistance and divergences, and it will probably be a kind of sellers' stop move in high timeframes.

However, for the support of gold in daily and four-hour timeframes, the 1850 to 1845 level can be considered the first support, but in case of failure, the next support of gold can be the 1820 level.

An important point for the gold support in the daily and four-hour timeframe is to see how gold falls, but the daily trend line's bottom and the ascending channel can be considered the first support for gold in general. If it breaks, gold will probably enter a retracement.

Therefore, we can see in the technical analysis that gold has entered the weekly and daily resistance level, and it has a difficult task ahead to cross this level and the 1900 channel. Note that in the daily and weekly resistance, big moves may be done in low timeframes like One hour, etc.

Gold Fundamental analysis

From the fundamental pov, gold depends more on the US dollar's fundamental status and has a sort of negative correlation with the dollar currency. On Thursday this week, inflation rate data will be released for the US dollar. These data are significant and can determine the direction of gold movement in the short term.

High inflation generally causes the rise of commodity and safe assets in the long term. But at this point, the situation is slightly different due to the importance of the US dollar status and the Federal Reserve's actions. In case the US inflation data shows inflation growth, because of the possibility of the Fed's aggressive policies intensification to control inflation, the US dollar will become more valuable, and gold will descend in the short term due to its negative correlation with USD, and if the data shows inflation reduction, it can weaken the dollar and make gold rise.

Please note that at the time of this news release, due to its significance, the dollar-related symbols, including gold, will have high fluctuation. In addition, trades and capital management are essential at the moment of the news release.

Gold Sentiment analysis

Considering gold's conflict with the resistance level of the weekly, daily, and four-hour timeframe one can look for suitable sell situations according to one's strategy and comply with the loss limit. Note that the movement of these times in one-hour timeframes and lower is considered a big move, and one should look for the entry point in lower time frames. Also, if the inflation data released on Thursday is in the dollar's favor and against gold, it can give gold a good drop. The inflation data result will be decisive in the fall or rise of gold.