Forex fundamental analysis & the economic calendar review (March 13-17)

A review of last week's important events 

Last week, important news and data were released. Powell, the US Federal Reserve head, mentioned the increase in the final interest rate in his speech as predicted, and his words were more about aggressive economic policies. These words caused the dollar to gain strength in related symbols. It is worth mentioning that last week US data such as NFP was released higher than expected.

At the end of the week, news about the US bank SVB's bankruptcy was announced, which reversed the dollar's trend. By publishing this bank's bankruptcy, the Federal Reserve's aggressive policies' dangers were highlighted and showed that this insolvency might also spread to other banks. Therefore, the Federal Reserve may reduce its aggressive policies.

Although the market suggested that the interest rate will increase by 0.5% in the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, considering the bank's bankruptcy news, the odds that the interest rate will not rise in the next meeting are very high. With these events, the dollar strongly weakened in related symbols. On Monday, dollar-related symbols opened with severe gaps.

The economic calendar review from March 13 to 17

The economic calendar will have significant data for the US dollar and the European euro in the coming week.

On Monday, the Federal Reserve held an emergency and confidential meeting due to the US banks' bankruptcy. This week, the market will mainly focus on the bank insolvency issue, so the Federal Reserve's actions on this matter are significant. This issue limits the Federal Reserve from increasing the interest rate further.

On Tuesday at 12:30 pm UTC, important US inflation data, including the net consumer price index - Core CPI m/m (February) (Prev: 0.4% | Fore: 0.4%), Core CPI y/y (February) (Prev: 5.6% | Fore: 5.5%), consumer price index - CPI m/m (February) (Prev: 0.5% | Fore: 0.4%) and consumer price index Producer - CPI y/y (February) (Prev: 6.4% | Fore: 6.0%) will publish. It is worth noting that inflation data is significant because if incremental inflation publishes, the worries about its increase again and inflationary stagnation will increase. Under normal conditions, the Federal Reserve should have increased the interest rate to prevent this recession, but with the bank insolvency issue, a further increase in the interest rate boosts the possibility of economic recession for US financial institutions. Therefore, it is anticipated that there might be difficult weeks ahead for the US dollar, and the dollar will perform very high fluctuations. In these circumstances, capital management is the most significant part of trading.

On Wednesday at 12:30 pm, Core PPI m/m (February) (Prev: 0.5% | Fore: 0.4%) and Producer Price Index - PPI m/m (February) (Prev: 0.7) % | Fore: 0.3%) will be published. Considering that the inflation news will be released earlier this week, this data cannot have a decisive role for the US dollar.

Also, at the same time, the Core Retail Sales index m/m (February) (Prev: 2.3% | Fore: -0.1%) and the Retail Sales m/m (February) (Prev: 3.0% | Fore: -0.3%) will release.

As usual, every Thursday at 12:30 pm, the US Unemployment Claims index (Prev: 211k | Fore: 205k) will publish.

On Friday at 02 pm, the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (March) (Prev: 64.7 | Fore: 64.5) and Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (March) (Prev: 67.0 | Fore: 67.0) will be published.

The coming week is significant for EUR because on Wednesday at 01:15 pm, the European central bank's interest rate will publish. According to forecasts, the interest rate will reach 3.5% with a 0.5% increase. Considering the US banks' insolvency, we must observe whether this news will affect the European Central Bank's decision to raise interest rates to a lesser extent.

But the European Central Bank's press conference held on the same day, at 01:45 and 03:15 pm, will be more significant than this bank's meeting to determine the interest rate.

On Friday at 10 am, European inflation data, which includes Final Core CPI y/y (February) (Prev: 5.6% | Fore: 5.6%), CPI m/m (February) (Prev: -0.2% | Fore: 0.8%) and Final CPI y/y (February) (Prev: 8.5% | Fore: 8.5%) are published.