Forex fundamental analysis and economic calendar review (April 25-28)

Fundamental analysis examines and analyzes the most important economic news and data and their impact on the forex market and other markets.
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In this fundamental analysis, we will examine the key events, news, and economic data from April 25-28 for the major currencies and assets in the forex market and their impact on the overall market trend.

A review of last week's important events

For the US dollar, according to the published data and the Federal Reserve members' remarks, market participants predict another 0.25% increase in the US interest rate.

Also, there was no significant data released last week. Only PMI manufacturing and services data were released, both data were better than expectations and indicated the US economy's good state.

The economic calendar review from April 25-28

The US and Japan's data will be important in the economic calendar this coming week.


CB consumer confidence index (April) (Prev: 104.2 | Fore: 104.0) will be published on Tuesday at 02 UTC. Last week, a sharp rise in the one-year inflation expectation component of UoM's consumer sentiment survey helped the dollar gain strength. Hence, a similar reaction is anticipated in the CB consumer survey.

On Thursday at 12:30 pm, Advance GDP q/q (Prev: 2.6% | Fore: 2.0%) will be published. This index is delayed, meaning that usually, according to the past data of the United States, it is possible to have a good prediction of the economy's state, but if it is not according to the forecasts, it can bring a good fluctuation for the dollar. The US economy is expected to grow at an annualized rate of 2.7% in the first quarter, down slightly from the 2.6% growth recorded in the last quarter of 2022. Investors are increasingly concerned that the US economy will collapse later in the year. Hence, a 2% or less GDP rate could restore expectations of a Fed rate cut at the end of the year, putting the dollar under heavy selling pressure. On the other hand, the positive impact of stronger-than-expected GDP growth should have the opposite effect.

Note that at the moment of the news release, there may be abnormal fluctuations in the symbols related to the dollar. We recommend following capital management in trading.

On Friday at 12:30 pm, the Core PCE Price Index m/m (March) (Prev: 0.3% | Fore: 0.3%) and Employment Cost Index q/q (Prev: 1.0% | Fore: 1.1%) will be published. Considering that the inflation data was released last week, these two data will not have any particular effect unless it publishes with a difference from the forecasts. The fluctuations of these two data will not be long-term and will have fluctuations at the moment of release. If it publishes above the fluctuations, it will cause the dollar to strengthen, and if it publishes below the predictions, it will cause the dollar to weaken.

Also, at 02 pm, the Consumer Expectations Index - UoM (April) (Prev: 60.3 | Fore: 61.8) and the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (April) (Prev: 63.5 | Fore: 63.5) will be published. If it releases according to expectations or higher, it will cause the dollar to strengthen.

Other currencies

On Wednesday at 01:30 am, Australian inflation data such as CPI q/q (Prev: 1.9% | Fore: 1.3%) and CPI y/y (Prev: 7.8% | Fore: 6.9%) will be released, which can bring good volatility for the Australian dollar in related symbols.

Friday will be significant for the Japanese Yen and may be associated with much volatility at the time of the news release. At 03 am, the BOJ monetary policy statement will publish, which could contain significant points for the unknown future of the Japanese Yen. And at 05 am, there will be a BOJ press conference. This press conference will be held to determine the future perspective of BOJ's actions. Please observe capital management in Japanese yen trades at the news release time.

For the Euro, on Friday at 08 am, changes in Germany's unemployment rate (April) and the GDP index, and at noon, the CPI or inflation index will be published.


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