As mentioned in the previous analysis, the power of the sellers was clear for the reasons mentioned in the chart, and the analysis mentality was more on selling. Also, we expected growth up to 1985 and 2000 resistance, when gold rose to the first resistance, then fell from this area, and the 1950 support was broken. (In the previous analysis, it was emphasized to gold buyers that there is a possibility of this support's failure in case of another attack). Gold continued its fall until the strong 1930 support and fluctuated between the 1985 and 1930 resistance levels.
Further, we will review gold's technical, fundamental, and sentiment aspects.
As you can see in gold's daily time frame, the trend line's interference with the support area and Fibonacci 50% have created a strong support area in the 1940 to 1930 range, which made the price jump up many times. Although this powerful support is still maintained in the chart, it has weakened by multiple attacks, and it is possible to break it if attacked again. Also, there are many gold resistances. The downward trend line is the first resistance currently blocking the path, and the second is at 1980. Therefore, gold is moving in a fluctuating state between resistance and support levels.
In this situation, professional traders say to sell at the ceiling and buy at the floor. Of course, you should pay attention to the fact that trades must-have stops, and you should be more careful in buying, because gold attacks support levels more than resistance, and there is a high possibility that the power of buyers has decreased in this support in the fourth attack. If you intend to sell in the daily timeframe, be patient until it gives a good high price, and you can sell with a suitable stop at the resistances, or let the price stabilize below 1930, then enter a sell at the bottom of the channel at 1900 in Pullback. Of course, all your trades must be per your strategy.
After an overview of the daily gold chart, the price action market fluctuates beautifully in the 4-hour timeframe chart. It is enough to pay attention to the resistance and support areas and trade based on these areas. As you can see from the two graphs, the resistance of 1984, which we identified from the previous week, has prevented the price from rising, and the support of 1930 has also prevented the price from falling.
Now, how can we trade with these supports and resistance levels? The price is currently involved in a downward trend line. When you see signs of price decline, such as candlestick patterns or movings averages, or any sign of a drop in your strategy, you can enter a sell position for support. When the price reaches the 1930 support level, and you see ascending signs such as candlestick patterns, etc., you can take a buy position with an appropriate stop loss according to your strategy. But you can enter into a sell trade at a suitable pullback to the next support price target, i.e., the bottom of the 1900 channel, as per your strategy if that support breaks. Also, you can act the same way if the price reaches the 1980 and 2000 resistance.
As you can see, in one hour, gold has broken its downward trend, and there are signs of rising prices, such as powerful bullish candles and the inability to cross the 1950 support and create a double bottom. Probably, gold will go towards the trend line with a little drop, and by receiving energy, it will pass the 1983 resistance and reach the $2000 range. Therefore, in the short term, we can hope for the rise of gold. The stop of buyers in the short term is below 1950.
The gold fundamental analysis depends on the US dollar's state. This week, significant data will publish for the US dollar, and we can say that the path of gold to break the support and resistances mentioned in the technical analysis depends on the data results on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Tuesday, consumer inflation data (CPI) will release. A significant increase in the core consumer price index - Core CPI m/m (May) (Prev: 0.3% | Fore: 0.3%) is necessary for investors to change their minds about the Federal Reserve's interest rate change on Wednesday. Since January 2022, the monthly CPI index has increased by 0.6% three times, the most recent being in September 2022. A jump of 0.6% or even higher could pave the way for a 0.25% Fed hike, boosting the dollar and putting pressure on XAU/USD. On the other hand, lower-than-expected growth should confirm the pause in the Fed's contractionary cycle and help gold prices rise.
Also, on Wednesday, there will be a meeting to determine the interest rate of the United States, which currently has a higher probability of not increasing the interest rate, meaning that traders predict that the US interest rate will remain at 5.25. With the release of inflation data on Tuesday, the forecasts can change, so if for any reason, the probability of interest rate increase rises or the Federal Reserve unexpectedly increases the interest rate, the dollar will strengthen quickly and intensely, and gold will fall.
Half an hour after the meeting of the Federal Reserve, Mr. Powell, the Fed Chairman, will give a speech which points such as "What will be the final interest rate?" Or "Will the interest rate decrease in 2023?" is significant in his speech.
Note that at the time of the US inflation data release, symbols related to the dollar, including gold, will fluctuate greatly, so it is necessary to observe capital management.
Since significant data for gold is ahead, the feelings and sentimental analysis will be clear after the news release. But before the news release, you can keep your mindset on Sell trades at resistance levels. Also, buying in the $1905 to $1900 support areas is a great option if the price reaches it.