Global Gold Analysis (XAUUSD) in Forex

A Review of Gold Movements

In the previous analysis of gold, we mentioned that two ranges of $1930 and $1900 were considered for the rise and fall of gold trades, as a result, the ounce of gold fluctuated between the 1930 resistance and the 1900 support area. It is enough to repeat the daily analysis done in the previous analysis to review gold's movement:

"During the daily time frame, two ranges are decisive for the rise or fall of gold. To rise, one must see how gold reacts to the 1935 range. If gold can stabilize above the 1935 limit, more buyers can enter the market. Sellers can regain power, and gold will fall if that did not happen. In the $1900 range and below, the buyers' activity, such as candlestick patterns with an upward sign or divergence, etc., should be considered."

Further, we will review gold's technical, fundamental, and sentiment aspects.

Gold Technical Analysis 

In the daily analysis time frame of gold, there is no change compared to the previous week, and for gold to rise, it must stabilize above the resistance area of $1935. If you think of buying, let gold pass through this area, then buy in price pullbacks with the $1965 target with a stop loss according to your strategy, and if you are thinking of selling, be sure to include the stop loss above 1935 in your trades.
For the ounce's fall, stability below $1900 is necessary. If you are thinking of selling in the lower areas, let the gold stabilize below this area and sell in pullbacks to the 1865 target, but if you are thinking of buying in the lower areas, be sure to observe the stop loss below $1890. For further explanation, let us repeat the rules of the range zone in technical analysis.

In technical analysis, when the price fluctuates between resistance and support areas, it is possible to sell at the price ceiling, i.e., at the resistance, with a stop loss above the ceiling, and buy at the price floor, with a stop loss below the floor, or allow it to pass through the price resistance or support and trade with Pullback in the trend continuation.

The image below shows the gold chart in the daily time frame. Click on the image to see it more accurately.

After receiving an overview of the daily gold ounce chart, in the 4-hour time frame, the ounce is in a descending channel. The interference of the channel ceiling and the 1935 resistance will be the determining area for gold to rise. If the specified level breaks, buyers will enter, and we can expect an increase in ounces. But as long as this area does not break, the sell trade is associated with less risk. If the price falls, you can buy at the bottom of the channel with candlestick or divergence confirmations.

You can use lower time frames for a more accurate check and a suitable entry point.

The image below shows the gold chart in the four-hour time frame. Click on the image to see it more accurately.

Gold Fundamental Analysis

The fundamental analysis of gold depends on the US dollar's state. This week, significant employment data from the Consumer Index or CPI will release for the US dollar.

"Wednesday is a significant day for the US dollar because the US inflation data for June will publish, and it will have a direct and decisive role on the decisions of the Federal Reserve in the July 26 interest rate meeting. 12:30 UTC, the Core CPI y/y (Prev: 5.3% | Fore: 5.0%) and Core CPI m/m (Prev: 0.4% | Fore: 0.3%) and CPI m/m (Prev: 0.1% | Fore: 0.3%) and CPI y/y (Prev: 4% | Fore: 3.1%) will be released. In general, the forecasts for the annual report indicate a sharp decrease in inflation. If the monthly core inflation rate is lower than expected, i.e., 0.3% or less, we can expect the US dollar to weaken in the initial moments of the news release. On the other hand, if the monthly core inflation release is 0.4% or higher, it is likely to have an adverse effect on the US dollar's performance."

In the weekly fundamental analysis, we reviewed the dollar's situation and its significant news in the economic calendar. Click to read the dollar's fundamental analysis.

Note that at the time of the US inflation data release, symbols related to the dollar, including gold, will fluctuate greatly, so observing capital management is necessary.

Gold Sentiment Analysis

Generally, the market sentiments are in the dollar's favor and against the ounce because the US economy is good, and there are expectations of an interest rate increase in the next Federal Reserve meeting. Therefore, it is possible to enter into a sell trade in the 1935 and 1960 resistances with a stop loss according to your strategy. But for further decline below 1890, it is necessary to stabilize below this area, and you can enter into a buy trade in the $1875 and $1860 support areas.