Weekly Forex Analysis | The Return of Tariff War 2?

In this weekly forex analysis from Trendo Broker, we review recent developments and forecast upcoming trends, offering practical insights for traders. Focusing on forex analysis-including both technical and fundamental perspectives-we closely examine the key factors influencing asset prices.

Last week, Donald Trump’s pivotal trip to the Middle East resulted in signing multibillion-dollar contracts with Arab countries, injecting a wave of calm not only into the Middle East but also into global markets. This major development sparked optimism across financial markets, impacting assets such as gold and Bitcoin. As this trend continues, traders are eagerly awaiting new opportunities. In the upcoming week, financial markets will be influenced by critical events including PMI data releases from the US, UK, and Eurozone, as well as speeches from Federal Reserve officials. These events are expected to trigger notable volatility in forex pairs, gold, and Bitcoin. For more information, please stay with us.

Weekly Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis in Forex

Gold faced significant selling pressure last week, leading to price declines and weakening its safe-haven appeal. The week opened at $3291.36 per ounce, but early selling pushed prices down to $3221.36. The downtrend extended to $3208 before the market entered a consolidation phase.

Later in the week, a second wave of selling on Wednesday pushed the price below $3200, and then down to $3180. By Friday, the price had recovered slightly to around $3197. The technical analysis in this section reflects a cautious market environment with no clear trend, influenced by economic data and monetary policy developments.

Experts’ Views on Gold

Adrian Day (Asset Management): The downtrend is likely to persist, but buying opportunities will emerge after a correction.

Adam Button: Unlikely that gold will fall below $3000.

Darin Newsom: Holding above $3123.30 could strengthen a bullish scenario.

Mark Leibovit: If selling pressure persists, the next support level lies at $2900.

Kevin Grady: Declining volume suggests major players are exiting, with algorithms now driving the market.

Fundamental analysis of gold highlights that rising bond yields and improving international trade relations have reduced gold’s appeal. However, maintaining the $3156.60 level (50-day moving average) could signal a temporary correction.

Global gold chart on the Trendo trading platform - Daily timeframe with 50-day moving average

Weekly Forex and Currency Pair Analysis

In the past week, the Forex market has been influenced by a combination of economic data, geopolitical developments, and monetary policies. The US-China trade agreement boosted risk appetite, while the US dollar gained strength supported by robust inflation data. Forex fundamental analysis shows traders have scaled back bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the market pricing only 57 basis points of easing for the year.

United States: Upcoming PMI releases and Fed speeches will likely dictate the dollar’s direction. Dollar strength is probable if inflation concerns persist.

Australia: The Reserve Bank’s expected 25 basis point rate cut was delivered, but its cautious tone supports the Australian dollar.

United Kingdom: Inflation and PMI data, alongside Bank of England decisions, will shape the pound’s trajectory. Reduced expectations for rate cuts have bolstered the pound.

Eurozone, Canada, Japan: PMI and inflation figures will influence monetary policy decisions in these regions.

This weekly Forex analysis indicates that trade agreements have mitigated geopolitical risks; however, economic data set to be released next week will determine the market's trajectory.

Weekly Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin remains the leading cryptocurrency with a market cap of $2.05 trillion and dominance of 61.58%. Our analysis covers both technical and fundamental perspectives:

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

As of the time of writing this analysis, Bitcoin is valued at $103,408 and has experienced a 0.4 percent decline over the past 24 hours. Key support levels lie at $92,647 and $81,565, while resistance levels are at $104,000 and $120,000. It is anticipated that the price will fluctuate within the range of $94,000 to $105,000; however, if the $105,000 level is breached, a surge towards $120,000 is not out of the question.

Bitcoin chart on the Trendo trading platform - Daily timeframe

Bitcoin Fundamental Analysis

Fundamentally, three bullish forces are evident for Bitcoin, including global liquidity growth, the widespread entry of institutional investors through ETFs and corporate purchases, and the reduced supply following the 2024 halving. However, regulatory crackdowns and news shocks remain the primary risks that could exert downward pressure on Bitcoin's price and create a bearish trend.

Summary

As we have analyzed in this weekly Forex analysis from Trendo Broker, gold is undergoing a correction under fundamental pressures but key supports may alter the trend. The US dollar leads forex pairs, buoyed by strong economic data, while other currencies respond to monetary policies and economic releases. Bitcoin holds upside potential backed by technical and fundamental factors, though trading requires careful risk management.

For better decision-making, traders should combine technical and fundamental Forex analysis and closely follow key news from reliable sources. With PMI and inflation data on the horizon, markets may experience significant volatility this week. It is recommended to use the Trendo trading platform for precise monitoring of developments and to utilize advanced trading tools. Meanwhile, follow Trendo’s official Telegram channel for instant updates.

At the start of the week ending May 12, 2025, global financial markets are navigating one of the most complex political and economic crossroads. On one hand, a temporary 90-day agreement between the United States and China to reduce tariffs has revived hopes of easing trade tensions, while on the other hand, somewhat weak economic data from the U.S. and Federal Reserve warnings about inflation and unemployment have maintained a cautious atmosphere.

In this Trendo weekly analysis, we take a close look at the most significant fundamental developments and the reactions of key markets including gold, EUR/USD, Bitcoin, and U.S. stock indices, aiming to provide a clear outlook on what may unfold this week. For active financial market participants, this week could redefine investment directions for months to come.

Fundamental Analysis | Turning Points in Geopolitical and Monetary Landscape

Consideration of recent data and developments in the weekly forex analysis indicate that global markets are passing through a sensitive transitional phase, where economic signals, monetary policies, and diplomatic stances simultaneously shape asset trajectories.

1. U.S.–China Tariff Truce: A Genuine Hope or Just Artificial Breathing?

The most notable event this week was the 90-day agreement between Washington and Beijing to mutually reduce 115% of tariffs, which somewhat calmed market sentiment. Although limited and temporary, the establishment of a regular negotiation mechanism between the two sides was seen as a positive signal for risky markets. Particularly, the U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen emphasized that neither party seeks economic decoupling. The strengthening of stock and cryptocurrency markets in response to this news confirmed this sentiment.

However, analysts caution that if China insists on complete tariff removal and the U.S. does not make initial concessions, this truce could lead to a new deadlock. Therefore, it cannot yet be considered a definitive phase change in bilateral relations.

2. Federal Reserve | Steady Policy Amid Growing Risks

At the recent FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%. However, the final statement adopted a more cautious tone, highlighting for the first time the simultaneous rise in inflation and unemployment risks. Chair Jerome Powell, while emphasizing the strength of the U.S. economy, noted that tariff-related pressures could lead to structural inflation.

The renewed emphasis on a "data-driven" policy stance has left markets desperate. With strong employment data showing an increase of 177,000 jobs, the likelihood of a rate cut in June has diminished but remains heavily dependent on inflation rates and future indicators.

3. Europe and the UK | Unity Against External Pressures

European policymakers are striving to maintain trade unity against U.S. pressures. Chinese President Xi Jinping, during meetings with European officials, emphasized strategic cooperation with the European Union and called for resistance against "unilateral bullying." Meanwhile, the U.S. reduction of tariffs on British cars and steel signals a gradual improvement in transatlantic relations.

Meanwhile, the ECB President’s cautious remarks about the possibility of further rate cuts if economic growth weakens have added downward pressure on the euro—triggering a correction in EUR/USD.

4. Imported Inflation Factor: Tariffs and Consumer Goods Prices

A Wall Street Journal report on a potential 30% price increase for laptops and smartphones in the U.S. has intensified concerns about cost-push inflation. If tariffs lead to sustained price increases, the Federal Reserve may be forced to keep interest rates high to contain inflation—a move that directly impacts bonds, stocks, and gold markets.

Technical Market Analysis | Seeking Critical Levels and Price Confirmations

Continuing the weekly forex analysis, the technical outlook on key market assets reveals that many symbols have reached critical price levels after a week filled with political and economic headlines, making the next moves crucial for traders.

Gold | Heavy Downward Movement, Support Level at Risk of Breaking

After a historic rise to around $3,500 in recent weeks, gold entered a corrective phase last week, dropping to $3,200 now. This decline is considered a natural correction, with recent weekly candlesticks indicating weakening upward momentum and potential for further selling pressure.

From a technical perspective:

The $3,220 region is the first support level, which was previously noted in analysis and reacted to by the market.

If prices stabilize below this level, the next key support near $3,055 could be the next correction target.

On the daily timeframe, the significant distance from the 200-day moving average and today’s (May 12) candlestick near the previous low may increase the likelihood of breaking this support.

From a psychological point of view, easing tensions between India and Pakistan or progress in U.S. trade agreements could exert additional downward pressure on gold prices.

Technical Analysis of Gold in Trendo

EUR/USD | Broad Correction Approaching Critical Level

After weeks of limited volatility, the EUR/USD pair experienced a roughly 2.5% decline last week, reaching around 1.1100.

Key points:

The 1.1010 level is a significant support, validated by both the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior upward move and price structure.

Selling pressure was evident in the May 12 daily candle. If this candle closes below 1.11, the probability of testing 1.10 support increases.

Breaking this zone could open the path toward the psychological 1.0950 level.

The euro’s next move will depend heavily on ECB monetary decisions and the outcome of Europe-U.S. trade negotiations.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD in the Trendo Trading Platform

Bitcoin | Breaking Above $104,000 or Short-Term Correction?

Bitcoin broke out of its 10-day range between $90,000 and $94,000 last week, advancing to $104,000 amid a relatively calmer political and tariff environment.

On the daily timeframe, RSI indicator has entered overbought territory, with divergence signs on the 1-hour chart.

First and second supports are at $101,500 and $96,900, respectively.

If trading volume continues to decline, a temporary correction is plausible, though the upward structure remains intact.

The next psychological and technical resistance lies between $108,000 and $110,000.

Weekly Bitcoin analysis in Trendo broker

U.S. Stock Indices | Breaking Out of the Range, Eyes on Resistance

In last week’s analysis, we accurately warned that the NASDAQ and S&P 500 indices were on the verge of breaking out of their consolidation range. This week, that scenario played out exactly as expected.

The NASDAQ index has approached the critical resistance level near 21,300 points.

The recent price action is strong, indicating fresh capital inflows into the Socks market.

If the political climate remains stable and trade deals progress, surpassing this resistance is likely; otherwise, a downward reaction could occur.

Stock market traders should closely monitor President Trump’s positions and related policy implications, which will influence the market’s direction.

Technical analysis of stock indices

Final Note on Weekly Financial Markets Analysis

As financial markets contend with a complex mix of political, economic, and trade developments, traders must pay heightened attention to risks, key price levels, and fundamental signals. The corrective trend in gold, Bitcoin’s potential to surpass its historical high, selling pressure on EUR/USD, and rising stock indices all indicate a reallocation of liquidity flows.

In the upcoming week, any developments in tariff negotiations, interest rate decisions, or statements from economic leaders could trigger new market waves. It is advisable to use theTrendo trading platform to closely monitor market developments and take advantage of advanced trading tools. At the same time, follow Trendo’s official Telegram and Instagram channels for real-time updates and insights.

Following the previous weekly analysis, which highlighted the relative stability of currency pairs, investor risk aversion, and the unprecedented rise of gold, the financial markets have remained engulfed in an atmosphere of uncertainty driven by economic and political developments this week. From ongoing tariff tensions between the U.S. and China to conflicting statements about negotiations and interest rate cuts, everything suggests uncertainty and anticipation.

In this weekly forex analysis, we aim to provide a clear outlook on the trajectory of key assets such as gold, Bitcoin, major currency pairs, and stock indices by integrating fundamental and technical data. Whether you trade forex, cryptocurrencies, or commodities, this report from the Trendo analysis team will equip you with sharper insights for your trading decisions.

Fundamental Analysis of Financial Markets | Update May 5, 2025

Based on recent data releases, we have witnessed the emergence of a complex narrative stemming from the confrontation of economic data, monetary policies, and political tensions. Trading environment remains overshadowed by geopolitical instability, tariff disputes, and fluctuating interest rate expectations - all directly influencing the direction of major financial assets.

U.S. Labor Market and Mixed Employment Data

Last week, the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report was released, showing an increase of +177,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations. The unemployment rate stabilized at 4.2%, and although wage growth slightly slowed, the data still points to a relatively healthy economy. Analysts interpret this as a sign that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates immediately.

Its impact on the market

This has strengthened the U.S. dollar index, exerting mild pressure on assets like gold and major currencies (notably EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/CAD). Meanwhile, teh U.S. stock market reacted to this data with limited volatility.

Ongoing Psychological Tariff War Between China and the U.S.

Contradictory statements from President Trump about possible talks with China’s president, alongside China’s denial of any formal negotiations, indicate that the trade war remains at an impasse. In this context, Washington seeks to initiate talks, but Beijing demands tariff rollbacks or modifications as preconditions.

This mutual distrust weighs heavily on global stock markets and boosts demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. The U.S. dollar has strengthened short-term, yet geopolitical risks continue to hinder sustained growth.

South Asia Tensions; Risk of India-Pakistan Military Conflict

Threatening remarks from Pakistan’s Defense Minister about a potential imminent Indian military strike have introduced a new source of tension on the global stage. Given the nuclear capabilities of both nations, global investors have shifted toward safe-haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen.

Its impact on the market

This has led to a notable increase in gold demand and potential volatility in Asian and regional currency pairs. This risk-averse environment may also impact commodity-linked currencies.

Disappointing U.S. Manufacturing Data and Soft Recession Signs

The ISM and PMI manufacturing indices reveal continued contraction in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Despite a relative improvement in new orders, soaring costs and declining business confidence raise structural concerns within the U.S. economy.

Its impact on the market

The likelihood of interest rate stabilization or cuts in coming months has diminished; however, pressure on manufacturing and export-oriented firms is mounting. If this situation persists, it could lead to a weakness in the U.S. stock market and reduced industrial demand.

Cautious European Policy and Euro Outlook

Comments from ECB officials Lagarde and De Guindos suggest the European Central Bank remains data-dependent. Although inflation is trending down, slowing economic growth and reduced investment in the Eurozone keep the possibility of near-term rate cuts alive.

The euro remains under pressure, with markets awaiting concrete ECB action. European stock indices face instability amid domestic and global concerns.

Canada’s Policies: Walking a Tightrope

With Mark Carney as Canada’s new Prime Minister emphasizing economic independence from the U.S., attention is on bilateral relations. Meanwhile, the Canadian CPI and interest rate expectations are also at the forefront of market attention.

The USD/CAD has remained in a fluctuating range, and upcoming data, including CPI and fiscal policies from the new government, will determine the future trajectory of USD/CAD.

Summary of This Week's Fundamental Analysis

This week’s fundamental analysis depicts a fragile market environment where any data release or statement can trigger significant volatility. Tariff wars, regional political tensions, and slowing growth in key global economies highlight a market landscape fraught with risk and news dependency.

Traders in the upcoming week should closely monitor economic data and political developments, employing professional tools available on the Trendo trading platform for effective risk management.

Technical Analysis of Financial Markets | Price Consolidation Week

Continuing the trend noted in the previous weekly analysis, financial markets remain in a consolidation phase. Major currency pairs, cryptocurrencies, and stock indices are trading within critical ranges where reactions to this week’s key data will likely clarify market direction.

Gold | Correction Halt at a Key Level; Awaiting Fresh News

After reaching a historic high of $3500, gold corrected mildly last week, oscillating around $3300 level. The positive price reaction at the important $3220 support level indicates its strength. However, the market remains in a wait-and-see mode without clear signs of a bullish reversal.

On the daily timeframe, the trend remains corrective, while hourly timeframe reveal a range-bound structure. Gold must break decisively in one direction this week, potentially triggering a volatile move.

Geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan, unresolved U.S.-China trade disputes, and uncertain negotiations maintain the potential for gold to surge again. Should news intensify, a rally toward the psychological resistance at $3400 is plausible.

Comprehensive analysis of gold in Trendo

Bitcoin | Volatility in a Critical Range; Divergence and Volume Drop, Signal Possible Correction?

Bitcoin exhibited calm price action last week, failing to break above the key resistance near $98,000. Currently, it fluctuates around $94,000, close to last week’s level.

On the 4-hour timeframe, the decrease in trading volume and a bearish RSI divergence, suggesting weakening upward momentum and a possible short-term correction. Key supports lie at $91,000 level and then at $89,100.

Nonetheless, the overall market structure remains bullish. Heightened geopolitical or financial instability could renew Bitcoin’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Technical analysis of Bitcoin in Trendo

Evident Stability in Currency Pairs and Indices; Market Awaits Major Decisions

As emphasized in the previous weekly analysis, major pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, and USD/CAD continue to trade within established ranges without significant breakouts or reversal patterns.

Additionally, major U.S. stock indices, including NASDAQ and Dow Jones, have remained in a consolidation phase near their key resistances following recent gains.

Considering the important economic events on the horizon, such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate, UK interest rate, and CPI releases for the U.S. and Switzerland, this neutral stance may soon give way to sharp, volatile moves.

Forex market analysis in Trendo trading platform

Summary and Final Recommendations

In the week ahead, markets stand at a critical juncture, balanced between apparent stability and the potential for sudden shifts. The release of key economic data such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate, the Bank of England’s interest rate, and inflation indices from the United States and Switzerland could directly alter the trajectory of numerous currency pairs and popular assets. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments and trade negotiations, especially between the U.S. and China, continue to fuel psychological market volatility.

In such an environment, traders must prioritize risk management and comprehensive analysis. It is recommended to utilize the analytical tools of the Trendo trading platform for live data monitoring, economic calendars, and key technical levels. Follow Trendo’s Telegram channel for instant updates, analytical alerts, and trading opportunities. The coming week could shape market trajectories for an extended period.

In the latest Weekly Trendo Analysis, we take an in-depth look at last week’s most significant fundamental and technical developments, a week influenced by US-China trade negotiations, bond market volatility, and statements from economic policymakers. This week’s forex analysis shows that many currency pairs are trading at critical levels, while gold has reached unprecedented highs and Bitcoin has climbed to historic levels, capturing considerable attention from investors.

If you’re looking to better identify trading opportunities in financial markets and wish to make more informed steps by closely examining economic trends and price flows, this market analysis offers you a reliable roadmap. Join the Trendo analysis team as we review the week’s major events and the outlook for major assets.

Fundamental Analysis of Financial Markets

In the fundamental part of weekly Trendo analysis, global markets were influenced by news surrounding US-China tariff negotiations, central bank monetary policies, and geopolitical developments. The pressure from the US budget deficit, a sharp rise in Treasury yields, and the cautious stance of Federal Reserve officials contributed to heightened market volatility.

In Europe, the statements from Christine Lagarde and officials of the European Central Bank indicated that the anti-inflationary path continues, though any final decision on rate cuts remains dependent on upcoming economic data. Meanwhile, China has taken a hardline stance in tariff negotiations, emphasizing that discussions will not commence unless the US changes its approach. The official announcement of a Trump-Xi Jinping meeting in early May has somewhat revived hopes for easing trade tensions.

In the commodities and cryptocurrencies markets, gold surged to a new all-time high of $3,500, and the rally of Bitcoin toward the $95,000 range signaled heightened uncertainty and a flight of capital towards safe-haven assets. In such conditions, traders must be more cautious in Forex and other Financial markets’ analysis and consider potential scenarios.

Technical Analysis of Markets

Following the weekly Trendo analysis, we turn to a detailed technical review of key assets. Given this week’s turbulent fundamental developments and significant financial markets shifts, critical price levels and behavioral patterns are playing a major role in shaping traders’ decisions.

In this section of the financial market analysis, we closely examine the trends of assets such as gold, Bitcoin, stock indices, and key currency pairs.

Gold Technical Analysis

As forecasted in previousweekly Trendo analyzes , which had predicted a strong rise in gold prices and a breach of key levels, gold has once again broken its historical highs, reaching $3500. However, as previously warned, signs of overbought conditions on higher timeframes and a significant gap from the 200-day moving average set the stage for a potential correction.

Last week, after hitting its record peak, gold entered a corrective phase and is now trading around $3320. The first support level is at $3230 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the latest daily wave), with the next support at $3055.

From a technical perspective on the weekly timeframe, the closing of a candle resembling an inverted hammer at the price top is a strong warning of further correction. On the daily timeframe, negative divergences in the RSI and the significant distance from the average price indicate that the market is in need of either a balancing phase or a correction.

Additionally, on the one-hour chart, gold is currently trading in a range between $3,270 and $3370. A breakout from this range, in either direction, could determine the trend for the coming week.

Gold Outlook

Despite technical signals pointing to a possible correction, the fundamental market environment remains tense. Ongoing US-China trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, and economic uncertainty continue to support demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

Should trade tensions persist or negotiations fail, gold could once again move toward higher highs. Conversely, positive progress in talks or reduced political risks could trigger a deeper correction toward the identified support levels.

Traders should closely monitor news related to trade agreements and geopolitical developments via the Trendo trading platform in the upcoming week, and prioritize risk management in their decisions.

Technical and Fundamental Analysis of Gold in Trendo

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

Over the past week, Bitcoin broke out of weeks-long consolidation, surging to test two key resistance levels at $90,000 and $95,000. The price is currently hovering around $94,000, with the uptrend still showing signs of strength.

From a technical standpoint, the first major support is at $91,000, with a secondary support near $89,100. The recent rally has occurred without a significant pullback, increasing the likelihood of a short-term correction in the coming days.

On the four-hour timeframe, a negative divergence between price and the RSI indicator confirms that bullish momentum has weakened somewhat, suggesting a need for short-term consolidation or a pullback.

Bitcoin Outlook

From a fundamental perspective, the overall crypto market remains positive amid geopolitical uncertainties, tariff wars, and the potential weakening of the US dollar. The ongoing US-China trade disputes have increased the appeal of alternative assets like Bitcoin, serving as a key driver of the recent rally.

However, the continuation or halt of Bitcoin’s bullish trend depends on two key factors:

• The performance of US stock markets, which have recently shown positive correlation with cryptocurrencies.
• The progress of trade negotiations and related tariff news.

Traders should remain vigilant regarding key support levels and stay updated on global news via the Trendo trading platform. Conservative risk management and disciplined trading strategies are crucial at this stage.

Comprehensive Bitcoin Analysis on Trendo

Relative Stability in Major Currency Pairs and Indices

This week’s analysis shows that major currency pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD, after recent rallies, have consolidated within last week’s price ranges with no significant trend changes. Likewise, major US stock indices such as the Dow Jones and Nasdaq, have also entered a consolidation phase following robust growth and continue to fluctuate near previous resistance levels.

This suggests that markets are adopting a cautious stance ahead of key economic data releases and political developments. Traders should continue to monitor fundamental data and updated news closely to be prepared for any sudden market shifts.

Analysis of Major Currency Pairs and Stock Indices

Conclusion and Final Recommendations in Weekly Trendo Analysis

The past week has been marked by significant volatility in gold and Bitcoin, while many currency pairs and stock indices remained within their previous ranges. With US-China tariff negotiations ongoing and global economic uncertainty persisting, expect that the upcoming week will also witness high-risk markets and unforeseen volatility. This situation underscores the importance of thorough analysis and effective risk management.

We recommend traders to closely follow economic and political developments and make trading decisions based on up-to-date analyses. For instant access to breaking news, expert analysis, and key market signals, be sure to use the Trendo trading platform and follow Trendo’s social media pages.

Over the past week, financial markets were swept up in a wave of political developments, central bank decisions, and fluctuating inflation expectations. Notably, the European Central Bank finally approved an interest rate cut—a move that the markets had already reacted to, which kept the EUR/USD reaction limited. This weekly Forex analysis aims to provide an in-depth look at the behavior of major assets such as gold, Bitcoin, currency pairs, and key indices, helping you gain a clearer outlook for the week ahead.

If you trade markets like gold, forex pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD, or even cryptocurrencies, this weekly Forex analysis by Trendo will help you make more informed decisions by understanding both the fundamental backdrop and technical conditions. Keep up with Trendo as we explore all aspects of this turbulent week.

Fundamental Review in the Weekly Forex Analysis

The most significant factor influencing major currency pairs this week was the conflicting signals from global central banks and international political developments. U.S. Federal Reserve officials, including Mary Daly, emphasized that rate cuts are not yet on the agenda and that monetary policy remains data-dependent, even as markets have largely reacted to a rate cut for June.

In Europe, ECB member Villeroy’s remarks suggested easing inflationary pressures, opening the door for potential expansionary monetary policies in the coming months. Meanwhile, Canada’s pre-election climate has introduced new perspectives on tariff wars, which could impact USD/CAD. The Bank of Japan remains cautious, but if core inflation approaches the 2 % target, a rate hike will be considered—putting the spotlight on the USD/JPY pair.

Technical Market Analysis | Price Outlook in the Weekly Forex Analysis

In this section, we take a deeper technical look at key market assets. Gold is on an uninterrupted path toward new highs, Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase, and major pairs like GBP/USD and USD/CAD are at critical price levels. A close examination of these levels can help traders make more informed decisions for the coming week.

Gold | Historic Highs, Investor Inflows, and Potential for a Pullback

In a volatile week, gold surged past previous highs, reaching—a level unprecedented in gold market history. With over 12% growth in just six trading days, high trading volumes, and significant investor inflows, gold has once again cemented its status as a safe haven. This rapid rally is directly tied to escalating economic and tariff tensions between the U.S. and China and a generally unstable geopolitical environment, which drove liquidity into gold markets last week.

At the same time, overbought signals by RSI across all timeframes—especially on the daily and 4-hour—suggest a possible short-term correction in the coming days. However, there are currently no signs of a trend reversal, and the main trajectory remains upward. The next psychological resistance is around 3400 $, while the first key support in the event of a pullback lies at 3220 $. Traders should proceed with caution at these critical levels and consider various scenarios, especially if political developments or potential trade agreements between China and the U.S. reduce gold demand.

Weekly Analysis of Gold in Trendo

Bitcoin | Consolidation at a Turning Point

After a notable surge last week to 84,500 $, Bitcoin remained unchanged this week, trading within a tight range. The range phase is occurring near key resistance levels at 90,000 $ and 95,827 $ suggests a breakout could trigger a new wave of demand.

Currently, the crypto market is in a wait-and-see mode, and any changes in U.S. economic indicators or global risk sentiment could quickly shift liquidity toward or away from Bitcoin. This price range is a critical decision point for investors.

Technical Analysis of Bitcoin in Trendo

GBP/USD | Pound Faces Strong Resistance

Like the euro, GBP/USD has followed a steady uptrend, now testing a major resistance zone between 1.3300 and 1.3350. While the last ten daily candles have been bullish, slowing momentum and upper wicks on recent candles indicate hesitation.

Simultaneously, the RSI entering overbought territory increases the likelihood of a short-term correction. Still, the strength of the uptrend and the lack of a clear reversal signal mean traders should remain cautious.

Weekly Analysis of GBP/USD in Trendo

USD/CAD | Pausing at the Low, Awaiting Key Data

After a sharp drop last week, USD/CAD traded sideways this week, hovering near its lows. The pair remains under downward pressure, but the formation of tight candles and oversold daily RSI readings suggest sellers may be taking a breather.

Upcoming economic data and news from Canada and the U.S. could determine the next move for USD/CAD. If the Canadian dollar strengthens, the downward trend is likely to continue; otherwise, a limited rebound cannot be ruled out.

Technical Analysis of USD/CAD in Trendo

Final Takeaways from the Weekly Forex Analysis

Financial markets are heading into a week that could potentially alter the many assets’ trajectories. On one hand, possible trade agreements or easing tariff tensions between the U.S. and China could reduce pressure on gold and redirect capital toward riskier assets like Bitcoin or stocks. On the other, a series of crucial economic releases—including Canada’s interest rate decision and inflation data from the U.S. and Europe—will impact the trajectory of major currency pairs.

In such conditions, effective risk management and mastery of analytical and trading tools matter more than simply predicting trends. TheTrendo trading platform, with its live charts, economic calendar, daily analysis, and advanced trading tools, is a reliable partner for decision-making in volatile markets. For instant updates, supplementary analysis, and key signals, be sure to follow Trenddo’s Telegram channel and Instagram page.

In a report by the Trendo analytical team, this week must be regarded as one of the most unstable periods in recent global markets. It began with increasing the trade tensions between the U.S. and China, continued with key economic data releases, conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve, and significant fluctuations in major assets.

The sudden decision of president Trump to impose heavy tariffs on Chinese goods (up to 145 %) alongside a 90-day suspension for other countries plunged the markets into a phase of distrust. However, partial restoration of confidence following the announcement of potential negotiations temporarily changed the trend for some assets. U.S. inflation data (CPI and PPI), statements from Federal Reserve officials, and monetary policy decisions from Europe and Canada were also critical points of this week’s analysis.

Gold | Relentless Rise Toward Crisis

In the past week, gold broke through the key support level of 3000 $ and reached 2950 $. It then rebounded strongly, surpassing previous highs to reach 3245 $. This ascent was accompanied by three powerful bullish candles on the daily timeframe, indicating the market's current reluctance to undergo a deep correction. Despite the clear divergence between price and RSI indicator, which could signal potential corrections, buying pressure remains dominant, and the technical structure does not provide definitive signs of a trend reversal.

From a fundamental perspective, the high-risk environment stemming from the tariff war between the U.S. and China continues to support gold price. However, a political development regarding Trump's cancellation of tariffs on certain electronic imports might lead to a price gap on Monday. Gold is expected to open with a negative gap due to temporary easing of risk pressure, while the U.S. stock market is likely to start with a positive gap. Gold's price behavior on the first trading day will provide crucial signals about the continuation of its weekly trend.

Weekly analysis of XAU/USD by Trendo

Bitcoin | Retesting Resistance Levels

At the beginning of last week, Bitcoin experienced a correction to around 74000 $, influenced by the tense environment from the tariff war. However, with Trump's temporary retreat from some tariffs and a relative return of risk appetite, the price quickly soared to 84500 $. The overall price trend on the daily timeframe remains bearish, but signs of seller weakness are visible, including stronger bullish candles, a slowdown in the downtrend, and formation of a liquidity zone behind the trend line, which increases the likelihood of a breakout.

Currently, the first resistance of the market is in the vicinity of 90000 $, and the next stands around 95827 $. If this structure is broken, Bitcoin might enter a new bullish phase. Given that cryptocurrencies trade 24/7, the market reacted to the tariff cancellations before the official opening of global exchanges, which can explain Bitcoin's recent rise. Nonetheless, to sustain the movement, it's crucial to observe how U.S. stocks and the dollar react to political developments in the early trading hours and whether investors continue to favor high-risk assets.

Technical Analysis of Bitcoin at Trendo Broker

EUR/USD | Crossing the 6-Month High with Strong Volume

The EUR/USD pair made a sharp and powerful move, breaking through its 6-month high and reaching the level of 1.14736. This rise occurred within just two daily candlesticks with heavy trading volume, clearly indicating strong liquidity flowing into the euro. Although divergence with RSI is observed in the four-hour timeframe, the strength of the trend suggests no serious signs of weakness or deep correction yet. The breakout of significant resistance, coupled with an accelerated candlestick pattern, indicates the market is likely seeking higher prices unless major data contradicts this trend.

From a fundamental perspective, increased trade tensions between the European Union and the United States over tariffs, combined with the temporary suspension of retaliatory actions by Europe, have created a cautious yet hopeful environment. Trump reduced tariffs for many countries but has not taken a clear stance on Europe, which could pressure the euro if negotiations fail. The European Central Bank maintained interest rates unchanged in its recent meeting, emphasizing the need for monetary policy stability against external shocks. In this context, the EUR/USD trend in the coming days will heavily depend on trade negotiation outcomes and upcoming economic data.

Weekly Technical analysis of EUR/USD on Trendo

USD/CAD | Intense Selling Pressure Ahead of Key Data

The USD/CAD pair has entered a strong corrective phase, marked by three consecutive bearish Marubozu candles. RSI on the daily timeframe reached the oversold territory. Traders are now awaiting the release of Canada's central bank interest rate and CPI inflation data, which could determine the pair's future direction.

It is recommended to manage positions carefully during data releases and using professional tools at Trendo trading platform.

Weekly Technical Analysis of USD/CAD on the Trendo Trading Platform

Summary

Currently, markets are at the intersection of three major axes:

1. The Tariff war between the United States and China escalation that has widespread implications for the global supply chain.

2. Key economic data, including Europe’s interest rates, U.S. inflation figures, and upcoming monetary policy decisions by Canada’s central bank.

3. Contradictory political signals from Trump, China, and the European Union which have deepened market ambiguity.

In such an environment, every price fluctuation could signal deeper shifts in market behavior. Professional traders should combine technical and fundamental analysis while closely monitoring news to navigate these dynamics effectively.

The Trendo analysis team, by providing up-to-date insights and advanced trading tools, supports you for precise risk management and smart decision-making amid market volatility. During this trading week, it is advisable to take full advantage of market fluctuations and consider capital management in your trades using the Trendo trading platform, which integrates an economic calendar and price charts.

Global financial markets have entered a tense week. The announcement of new tariffs by Trump and China's reciprocal response have intensified the risk-averse environment in the markets. US stock indices experienced a significant drop, and risky assets’ value sharply decreased. The cautious remarks of Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, also indicate politicians’ concerns about the effects of this trade war on economic growth and inflation.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown a moderate reaction compared to the stock market, where some analysts believe this asset is separating its path from traditional markets. In such circumstances, a precise analysis of market behavior and a simultaneous understanding of technical and fundamental factors are more essential than ever for making smart decisions. In the following, we will examine the performance of key assets including Gold, AUD/USD, Bitcoin, and the NASDAQ index.

Gold Analysis (XAU/USD); Is the Uptrend on the Verge of Stopping?

Gold, after a powerful rise to the 3168 $ range, has entered a volatility phase. This growth was influenced by the intensification of the global risk-averse environment and Trump's tariff policies, which increased demand for safe assets. However, technical analysis data show signs of weakness in the continuation of the upward trend.

In the daily timeframe, the first support level located between 3000 $ and 3030 $, which has so far prevented further decline. By surpassing this area, the next range is 2950 $ which will act as the next key support. Overall, gold is located in a sensitive range. The continuation or halt of the trend depends on the price's reaction to the support levels as well as news relevant to the trade war and Federal Reserve policies.

Analysis of AUD/USD; Sharp Drop and Convergence in a Critical Range

Following the imposition of heavy tariffs by the United States and the swift market reactions, the Australian dollar has been one of the most vulnerable currencies to trade shocks. The AUD/USD currency pair has recorded a strong bearish candle on the weekly timeframe, which is unprecedented in terms of trading volume among the recent candles.

Currently, the price has reached the important support range of 0.5935 to 0.6050. If the market does not react to this area positively, the next support around 0.5700 could be the next destination for sellers. Due to the significant dependence of Australia on trade with China, the intensification of tariff war between Beijing and Washington could put additional pressure on the Australian dollar. On the other hand, the market's reaction to political issues and economic data during this week will determine whether this downward trend will continue or not.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Analysis: Waiting for the Next Move

Bitcoin is fluctuating within the 82,000 $ range, while it has failed to compensate for its drop from ATH (All time high), over the past four weeks. This stagnation at the peak price could be a sign of buyer weakness and the possibility of further correction.

In the weekly timeframe, the first support zone is in the range of 70,000 $ to 72,000 $; a place where the price might react and Bitcoin takes a new path.

The interesting point in the current situation is that, contrary to the heavy fall of the U.S. stock market, Bitcoin has shown a limited reaction. This behavioral divergence could be a sign of divergence beginning between the crypto market and traditional assets.

Given the sensitivity of the global economic environment, Bitcoin's reaction in the coming days is of great importance and can determine investors' stance against systemic risks.

Analysis of the NASDAQ Index; Sharp Drop in an Ambiguous Environment

The NASDAQ index experienced one of its heaviest recent declines last week, with a drop of more than 13%. The weekly candle, with strong momentum and a substantial body, indicates a significant wave of capital leaving the American stock market. This decline may relate to the trade war intensification and increase in reciprocal tariffs between the United States and China.

In the weekly timeframe, the RSI indicator has entered the oversold zone and has dropped below 30; a situation that is usually accompanied by an increased likelihood of a price reaction in support areas. The first support range is between 16162 and 16747. If it breaks, the next key area is between 14900 and 14500.

The overall condition of the U.S. stock market is under severe pressure from inflation expectations and distrust in future policymaking. In such conditions, the reaction of NASDAQ to the current support zone could play a decisive role in the scenarios of the coming weeks.

Summary: Markets at the intersection of political risks and inflation data

Global financial markets are starting the new week in a state of uncertainty. On one hand, Trump's tariff has delivered a serious shock to stocks, currencies, and commodities. On the other hand, the release of the U.S. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) this week could design a new path for assets, which will have a direct impact on inflation expectations and future Federal Reserve.

Meanwhile, countries' reactions to U.S. tariffs are taking shape. China has officially announced its response, but should be patient to see Europe and other major economies' reactions and how they will handle the situation. Elon Musk, as one of the influential figures in the U.S. economy, has also expressed his opposition to the tariffs and suggested that the U.S. and Europe should reach a bilateral agreement to eliminate tariffs. Taking this move could significantly alter political and economic equations.

In such an environment, traders need to pay more attention than ever to data, technical trends, and real-time news. The Trendo trading platform is equipped with tools like economic calendar and up-to-date analyses, which helps you make more informed decisions amidst the fluctuations. In the week ahead, flexibility, risk management, and readiness for quick reactions will be the keys to your success.