MohsenKoolaji

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2025-04-06 16:24

Tariff War Shocked the Global Market| Markets in Shock from Conflicting Political Signals

In a report by the Trendo analytical team, this week must be regarded as one of the most unstable periods in recent global markets. It began with increasing the trade tensions between the U.S. and China, continued with key economic data releases, conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve, and significant fluctuations in major assets.

The sudden decision of president Trump to impose heavy tariffs on Chinese goods (up to 145 %) alongside a 90-day suspension for other countries plunged the markets into a phase of distrust. However, partial restoration of confidence following the announcement of potential negotiations temporarily changed the trend for some assets. U.S. inflation data (CPI and PPI), statements from Federal Reserve officials, and monetary policy decisions from Europe and Canada were also critical points of this week’s analysis.

Gold | Relentless Rise Toward Crisis

In the past week, gold broke through the key support level of 3000 $ and reached 2950 $. It then rebounded strongly, surpassing previous highs to reach 3245 $. This ascent was accompanied by three powerful bullish candles on the daily timeframe, indicating the market's current reluctance to undergo a deep correction. Despite the clear divergence between price and RSI indicator, which could signal potential corrections, buying pressure remains dominant, and the technical structure does not provide definitive signs of a trend reversal.

From a fundamental perspective, the high-risk environment stemming from the tariff war between the U.S. and China continues to support gold price. However, a political development regarding Trump's cancellation of tariffs on certain electronic imports might lead to a price gap on Monday. Gold is expected to open with a negative gap due to temporary easing of risk pressure, while the U.S. stock market is likely to start with a positive gap. Gold's price behavior on the first trading day will provide crucial signals about the continuation of its weekly trend.

Weekly analysis of XAU/USD by Trendo

Bitcoin | Retesting Resistance Levels

At the beginning of last week, Bitcoin experienced a correction to around 74000 $, influenced by the tense environment from the tariff war. However, with Trump's temporary retreat from some tariffs and a relative return of risk appetite, the price quickly soared to 84500 $. The overall price trend on the daily timeframe remains bearish, but signs of seller weakness are visible, including stronger bullish candles, a slowdown in the downtrend, and formation of a liquidity zone behind the trend line, which increases the likelihood of a breakout.

Currently, the first resistance of the market is in the vicinity of 90000 $, and the next stands around 95827 $. If this structure is broken, Bitcoin might enter a new bullish phase. Given that cryptocurrencies trade 24/7, the market reacted to the tariff cancellations before the official opening of global exchanges, which can explain Bitcoin's recent rise. Nonetheless, to sustain the movement, it's crucial to observe how U.S. stocks and the dollar react to political developments in the early trading hours and whether investors continue to favor high-risk assets.

Technical Analysis of Bitcoin at Trendo Broker

EUR/USD | Crossing the 6-Month High with Strong Volume

The EUR/USD pair made a sharp and powerful move, breaking through its 6-month high and reaching the level of 1.14736. This rise occurred within just two daily candlesticks with heavy trading volume, clearly indicating strong liquidity flowing into the euro. Although divergence with RSI is observed in the four-hour timeframe, the strength of the trend suggests no serious signs of weakness or deep correction yet. The breakout of significant resistance, coupled with an accelerated candlestick pattern, indicates the market is likely seeking higher prices unless major data contradicts this trend.

From a fundamental perspective, increased trade tensions between the European Union and the United States over tariffs, combined with the temporary suspension of retaliatory actions by Europe, have created a cautious yet hopeful environment. Trump reduced tariffs for many countries but has not taken a clear stance on Europe, which could pressure the euro if negotiations fail. The European Central Bank maintained interest rates unchanged in its recent meeting, emphasizing the need for monetary policy stability against external shocks. In this context, the EUR/USD trend in the coming days will heavily depend on trade negotiation outcomes and upcoming economic data.

Weekly Technical analysis of EUR/USD on Trendo

USD/CAD | Intense Selling Pressure Ahead of Key Data

The USD/CAD pair has entered a strong corrective phase, marked by three consecutive bearish Marubozu candles. RSI on the daily timeframe reached the oversold territory. Traders are now awaiting the release of Canada's central bank interest rate and CPI inflation data, which could determine the pair's future direction.

It is recommended to manage positions carefully during data releases and using professional tools at Trendo trading platform.

Weekly Technical Analysis of USD/CAD on the Trendo Trading Platform

Summary

Currently, markets are at the intersection of three major axes:

1. The Tariff war between the United States and China escalation that has widespread implications for the global supply chain.

2. Key economic data, including Europe’s interest rates, U.S. inflation figures, and upcoming monetary policy decisions by Canada’s central bank.

3. Contradictory political signals from Trump, China, and the European Union which have deepened market ambiguity.

In such an environment, every price fluctuation could signal deeper shifts in market behavior. Professional traders should combine technical and fundamental analysis while closely monitoring news to navigate these dynamics effectively.

The Trendo analysis team, by providing up-to-date insights and advanced trading tools, supports you for precise risk management and smart decision-making amid market volatility. During this trading week, it is advisable to take full advantage of market fluctuations and consider capital management in your trades using the Trendo trading platform, which integrates an economic calendar and price charts.

Forex Weekly Analysis - Apr 6, 2025

Global financial markets have entered a tense week. The announcement of new tariffs by Trump and China's reciprocal response have intensified the risk-averse environment in the markets. US stock indices experienced a significant drop, and risky assets’ value sharply decreased. The cautious remarks of Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, also indicate politicians’ concerns about the effects of this trade war on economic growth and inflation.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown a moderate reaction compared to the stock market, where some analysts believe this asset is separating its path from traditional markets. In such circumstances, a precise analysis of market behavior and a simultaneous understanding of technical and fundamental factors are more essential than ever for making smart decisions. In the following, we will examine the performance of key assets including Gold, AUD/USD, Bitcoin, and the NASDAQ index.

Gold Analysis (XAU/USD); Is the Uptrend on the Verge of Stopping?

Gold, after a powerful rise to the 3168 $ range, has entered a volatility phase. This growth was influenced by the intensification of the global risk-averse environment and Trump's tariff policies, which increased demand for safe assets. However, technical analysis data show signs of weakness in the continuation of the upward trend.

In the daily timeframe, the first support level located between 3000 $ and 3030 $, which has so far prevented further decline. By surpassing this area, the next range is 2950 $ which will act as the next key support. Overall, gold is located in a sensitive range. The continuation or halt of the trend depends on the price's reaction to the support levels as well as news relevant to the trade war and Federal Reserve policies.

Analysis of AUD/USD; Sharp Drop and Convergence in a Critical Range

Following the imposition of heavy tariffs by the United States and the swift market reactions, the Australian dollar has been one of the most vulnerable currencies to trade shocks. The AUD/USD currency pair has recorded a strong bearish candle on the weekly timeframe, which is unprecedented in terms of trading volume among the recent candles.

Currently, the price has reached the important support range of 0.5935 to 0.6050. If the market does not react to this area positively, the next support around 0.5700 could be the next destination for sellers. Due to the significant dependence of Australia on trade with China, the intensification of tariff war between Beijing and Washington could put additional pressure on the Australian dollar. On the other hand, the market's reaction to political issues and economic data during this week will determine whether this downward trend will continue or not.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Analysis: Waiting for the Next Move

Bitcoin is fluctuating within the 82,000 $ range, while it has failed to compensate for its drop from ATH (All time high), over the past four weeks. This stagnation at the peak price could be a sign of buyer weakness and the possibility of further correction.

In the weekly timeframe, the first support zone is in the range of 70,000 $ to 72,000 $; a place where the price might react and Bitcoin takes a new path.

The interesting point in the current situation is that, contrary to the heavy fall of the U.S. stock market, Bitcoin has shown a limited reaction. This behavioral divergence could be a sign of divergence beginning between the crypto market and traditional assets.

Given the sensitivity of the global economic environment, Bitcoin's reaction in the coming days is of great importance and can determine investors' stance against systemic risks.

Analysis of the NASDAQ Index; Sharp Drop in an Ambiguous Environment

The NASDAQ index experienced one of its heaviest recent declines last week, with a drop of more than 13%. The weekly candle, with strong momentum and a substantial body, indicates a significant wave of capital leaving the American stock market. This decline may relate to the trade war intensification and increase in reciprocal tariffs between the United States and China.

In the weekly timeframe, the RSI indicator has entered the oversold zone and has dropped below 30; a situation that is usually accompanied by an increased likelihood of a price reaction in support areas. The first support range is between 16162 and 16747. If it breaks, the next key area is between 14900 and 14500.

The overall condition of the U.S. stock market is under severe pressure from inflation expectations and distrust in future policymaking. In such conditions, the reaction of NASDAQ to the current support zone could play a decisive role in the scenarios of the coming weeks.

Summary: Markets at the intersection of political risks and inflation data

Global financial markets are starting the new week in a state of uncertainty. On one hand, Trump's tariff has delivered a serious shock to stocks, currencies, and commodities. On the other hand, the release of the U.S. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) this week could design a new path for assets, which will have a direct impact on inflation expectations and future Federal Reserve.

Meanwhile, countries' reactions to U.S. tariffs are taking shape. China has officially announced its response, but should be patient to see Europe and other major economies' reactions and how they will handle the situation. Elon Musk, as one of the influential figures in the U.S. economy, has also expressed his opposition to the tariffs and suggested that the U.S. and Europe should reach a bilateral agreement to eliminate tariffs. Taking this move could significantly alter political and economic equations.

In such an environment, traders need to pay more attention than ever to data, technical trends, and real-time news. The Trendo trading platform is equipped with tools like economic calendar and up-to-date analyses, which helps you make more informed decisions amidst the fluctuations. In the week ahead, flexibility, risk management, and readiness for quick reactions will be the keys to your success.