Gold Analysis Update | Temporary Rebound or Beginning of a Decline?

Following last week's selling pressures, the gold price broke the significant 3000 $ support level and fell to the critical range of 2950 $, where it initially responded from buyers, allowing the price to momentarily return above 3000 $. However, the bearish structure observed on the hourly time frame and breaking the previous low on the daily timeframe, serve as a powerful warning of a potential market phase shift. In weekly Trendo Analysis, we pointed out that the price could experience further declines, according to the weekly candle structure.

Updated Technical Analysis of Gold on Trendo

From a fundamental perspective, several factors are exerting additional pressure on the gold trend:

1. Powell's Statements and the Reluctance to Quickly Lower Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve Chairman recently emphasized that a reduction in interest rates in the short term is not guaranteed, and decisions regarding this will depend on inflation data. This cautious approach has led to a decrease in market expectations regarding monetary easing and increased pressure on gold.

2. Market Sensitivity to Upcoming Inflation Data

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released this week, which could determine the next direction of the market. If inflation is recorded higher than expected, we will likely see intensified selling pressure on gold.

Currently, gold's response to the 2950 $ level may only be a temporary pullback. If sellers can break this zone, the next target would be in the range of 2860 $. On the other hand, if this drop turns out to be merely a false breakdown and a liquidity trap, a strong rebound above $3030 could signal the beginning of a new upward wave. In such circumstances, traders should closely monitor price behavior in critical zones and remain mindful of alternative scenarios. The gold market is on the verge of an important decision.