Federal Reserve Decision and Its Impact on the Dollar, Stocks, and Cryptocurrencies

Tonight, July 30, 2025, at 18:00 GMT, the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold a critical meeting to discuss its interest rate policy. This meeting is considered one of the most essential events in recent months by traders and analysts alike.

Currently, the U.S. interest rate stands at 4.5 %, and most forecasts suggest no immediate change. However, the key point is:

Everyone is eagerly awaiting Jerome Powell’s remarks after the meeting. The market wants to know whether a rate cut is likely in the coming months.

On the other hand, President Donald Trump has repeatedly pressured Powell to lower interest rates. However, Powell has resisted, stating that the Fed makes decisions independently. So, it's not just the rate decision that matters; Powell’s tone and any possible signal regarding future rate cuts could significantly move the markets.

Current Rate & Market Expectations for Tonight’s Fed Meeting

At present, the U.S. interest rate sits at 4.5%, unchanged since late 2024. The Federal Reserve has so far shown little appetite for either raising or cutting rates.

Most analysts and traders expect the Fed to hold rates steady at tonight’s meeting. In simple terms, the market has already priced in this scenario.

Therefore, if the announced number is as expected (i.e., 4.5%), the initial market reaction might not be very emotional.

However, traders are focusing on what comes after the number, which is “the Fed's future direction.”

Will Jerome Powell signal a possible rate cut in the coming months?

Has inflation cooled enough to justify lower rates?

Or, is the Fed still cautious, aiming to keep rates elevated for longer?

For traders, these signals are critical, as they can determine the path of interest rates for the months ahead.

Rate Cut Scenario (e.g., to 4.25%)

If the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cuts rates, the market will experience a genuine shock. Such a move would signal the Fed’s concerns about slowing economic growth or other downside risks. In this scenario, traders could expect a sharp drop in the U.S. dollar and a significant rally in gold, cryptocurrencies, and stock indices.

Rate Hike Scenario (e.g., to 4.75%)

Should the Fed unexpectedly raise rates, the message is clear: inflation is not under control, or there are renewed fears about persistent price pressures. This outcome typically results in a strong surge in the dollar and declines in risky assets like Bitcoin and stocks.

Track the Federal Reserve’s rate decision in the Trendo Economic Calendar

Summary | The Number Matters Less Than the Direction

Tonight’s rate announcement is a minor part of the story, and the major case is the tone and signals from Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve. If his remarks suggest a willingness to cut rates in the near future, we could see the U.S. dollar weaken. But if his tone emphasizes rate stability, data-dependence, and resistance to political pressure, it could strengthen the dollar.

The good news is that you can simultaneously trade your desired assets and see live data on the Trendo trading platform when the interest rate and Powell’s comments are released.

No need for multiple websites or apps—analysis and execution, all in one place.