By reviewing last week's events, the statement of the Federal Reserve meeting published on Wednesday can be called the most important event of this week. While the fed members noticed the final interest rate as high, the majority favored reducing the interest rate increase, which is considered a negative sign for the dollar. As a result of this statement, gold continued its upward movement with a decrease in bonds. Also, because of the dollar weakening, currency pairs such as the EURUSD and GBPUSD and the American stock indices rose.
On the other hand, due to weaker-than-expected data on UI (unemployment insurance) and PMI, some market activists and Federal Reserve officials presume a high chance of a recession in the United States, which can make the Dovish policy matter continue, as a result, the dollar weakening will follow. But we should note that the US dollar can play a safe asset role during the recession.
On November 24th and 25th last week, due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the markets were shallower. Therefore, on Thursday and Friday, no significant fluctuations were observed.
But in the coming week, most data and important news in the weekly calendar are related to the US dollar, which can cause good movements in the symbols related to the USD.
Considering the upcoming events in terms of economic data, a very busy week is expected for the US dollar. And according to the proximity of the Federal Reserve meeting to determine the interest rate and monetary policy, it can be a very volatile and decisive week for the future of the US dollar.
The US nonfarm jobs report (previous report: 233,000, forecast: 200,000) and the unemployment rate (previously: 3.7%, forecast: 3.7%) are the most important data of this week, which is the last nonfarm report before the December 15 Federal Reserve meeting and determining the interest rate publishing on Friday, December 2 at 1:30 PM(UTC). This report is crucial because it defines the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policies, which are data-driven. So far, five out of the last six jobs reports have been better than forecasts. The dollar in related symbols may strengthen if a stronger reading than the forecast publishes this time.
On Wednesday at 6:30 PM UTC, Jerome Powell, the head of the US central bank, will give a speech.
In this speech, Powell will probably mention the role of economic data in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. However, we should note what points he will remark about the Federal Reserve's financial policy. And which of these points has the role of Hawkish or Dovish?
Other important news for the US dollar
CB consumer confidence index will publish on Tuesday at 03 PM.
On Wednesday at 1:15 PM, the ADP private and non-farm changes report will be published. Also, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the year's third quarter is published, which can cause fluctuations in the dollar, which is important for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
On Thursday at 1:30 PM, the core PCE price and unemployment claim index will publish. And at 03 PM, one of the Federal Reserve's favorite indices, the PMI index of the manufacturing sector (ISM report), will be issued.
Two important data will be published this week for the Canadian dollar that CAD traders should note. On Monday, Canada's monthly GDP (previous: 0.1%, forecast: 0.1%) will publish at 1:30 PM, and on Friday at 1:30 PM Canadian employment (previously: 108000, forecast: 10.5000), the unemployment rate (previous: 5.2% and forecast: 5.3%) will be published. The forecasts indicate weakness in the Canadian economy. We should also note that the Central Bank of Canada has started to reduce the interest rate increase faster than other banks. Therefore, if weak data is published, it can cause a decrease in the Canadian dollar value.
For the Australian dollar, on Sunday at 11 PM and Friday at 2 AM, Governor Lowe, head of the Australian central bank's speech, will be important.
The inflation rate (CPI) will be published for Europe's Euro on Sunday at 10 PM, which is very important for determining the interest rate on December 15. If the inflation rate publishes higher than the forecasts, the euro may strengthen.
On Thursday at 07:30 AM, Switzerland's inflation rate (CPI) will be published, which can cause a good fluctuation in the currencies related to the Swiss franc.